How much lead did I ingest if I drank tap water in Flint in 2016?

Backed by Eric D. Walters
PGeostat, LLC
Sterling Heights, Michigan
Data Science
$104
Raised of $7,500 Goal
2%
Ended on 2/08/17
Campaign Ended
  • $104
    pledged
  • 2%
    funded
  • Finished
    on 2/08/17

About This Project

Despite returning to its original source of drinking water in October 2015, high levels of lead are still present in Flint's tap water. Using geostatistical mapping and public-domain data this project aims to estimate daily water lead levels for each residential tax parcel in Flint. A web-based application will allow concerned citizens to compute their potential exposure for specific periods of time. Such information is critical for populations at risk, such as children and pregnant women.

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What is the context of this research?

The drinking water contamination crisis in Flint, Michigan has attracted national attention since extreme levels of lead were recorded following a switch in water supply that resulted in water with high chloride and no corrosion inhibitor flowing through the aging Flint water distribution system. Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water in late 2015 close to 25,000 water samples have been collected and tested for lead and copper in more than 10,000 residences. Despite the recent improvement in water quality, high levels of lead are still recorded and their occurrence can be predicted to some extent by the age of the house, the presence of lead service lines, and neighborhood characteristics.

What is the significance of this project?

There is an urgent need to investigate more diligently the space-time distribution of past and current lead exposures to more fully interpret elevated blood lead levels and potential health impacts in children, pregnant women and infants in Flint. Children may be exposed to levels of lead that adversely affect their health often before clinical symptoms appear. The earliest onset of symptoms in children exposed to lead may include emerging behavioral problems in school or observed slow growth and development during a doctor’s visit. Although a lot of research is currently being funded on the topic, this is long-term research and results on potential exposures won’t be readily accessible to concerned citizens.

What are the goals of the project?

The main goal is to provide concerned Flint citizens with a rough estimate of how much lead in drinking water they might have been exposed to in 2016. We will first model geostatistically the space-time distribution of drinking water lead levels within the city of Flint, accounting for housing characteristics (construction year, composition of service lines), spatial clustering of water samples, change in sampling protocol, and the space-time correlation of lead levels. Using this model we will estimate water lead levels for each residential tax parcel and each day in 2016. Results will be shared with the public through a website where citizens will be able to compute their potential cumulative exposure by selecting a tax parcel and a start and end date for the time period of interest.

Budget

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Data are available on-line and underwent preliminary analysis of temporal trends and spatial patterns by Dr. Goovaerts. Funding is needed to extend the analysis to space-time, resulting in daily estimates of water lead levels for each residential tax parcels in Flint. A web-based application still needs to be created and its development will be fully funded by this project.

Endorsed by

This is an exciting project - it will offer the people of Flint a tool to help them gauge their potential lead exposure risk. Pierre Goovaerts, PhD is an internationally respected expert in this area of study and has published a paper based on his review of publicly available data sources, "The drinking water contamination crisis in Flint: Modeling temporal trends of lead level since returning to Detroit water system" bit.ly/2iJVkND.
Pierre's work is of critical importance to enhancing the understanding of the spatial distribution of lead risk in Flint. It's particularly important because he is able to challenge the State of Michigan's choice to target water sampling in select neighborhoods, and he contextualizes lead risk across the entire city rather than only at sampling sites.

Meet the Team

Pierre Goovaerts
Pierre Goovaerts
Dr.

Affiliates

BioMedware, Inc. Chief Scientist University of Florida, Courtesy Associate Professor
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Maxime Goovaerts
Maxime Goovaerts
Software Engineer

Team Bio

The web-based application will be developed by my son, Maxime Goovaerts.

Maxime has worked with me before on previous projects. He graduated from Michigan State University with a degree in Computer Science in 2015. Since then he has been working as a lead software engineer developing mobile applications for Humana in Louisville, KY.

Pierre Goovaerts

I became interested in geostatistics as a junior in agricultural engineering who had to go out in the field and collect soil samples. One of my teachers gave me a 4 page paper on that topic and challenged me to think about sampling design before doing any experiment. At the time, there was no course on geostatistics, no software and of course no personal computer. I spent a lot of time in the library reading everything I could find on the topic and developed my own computing tools. I received an award for my thesis and it was the start of my research career.


The next step was to get a PhD, followed by a post-doc in one of the best geostatistical research centers at Stanford. During that time, I wrote what turned out to be one of the most popular textbooks on geostatistics even after 20 years. Since then, I had the opportunity to develop and apply geostatistical techniques across a wide range of disciplines, including hydrology, ecology, ergonomics, climatology, soil science, remote sensing, fisheries to name a few. My main field of application has however been environmental contamination (air, soil, and groundwater pollution) and its impact on human health (e.g., low birth weight, cancer). So, I see myself as an environmental epidemiologist and a medical geographer.


My contribution to science is far from being confined to the realms of academia. As chief scientist at BioMedware, I have contributed to the development of the Software SpaceStat that provides unique geostatistical functionalities not offered by any other commercial software. I have designed the interface for most of these methods, wrote the documentation, and trained hundreds of scientists on all six continents. I am also a consultant providing my expertise on the geospatial and temporal analysis of environmental and health data. PGeostat portfolio includes several high-visibility projects such as the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill or the ASARCO smelter arsenic contamination (Tacoma, WA).



Maxime Goovaerts

I am a hard-working and driven full-stack engineer with 3+ years of industry experience and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from Michigan State University. My goal is to make a positive impact in the world through software development!

My recent industry experience has had a focus in the mobile realm where I have developed both client-side (Android) and server-side (RESTful APIs) applications. I am currently the lead engineer on Humana's self service mobile application (MyHumana) working in Louisville, KY.

I am furthering my education in Computer Science by pursuing a Masters of Science in Computer Science from Georgia Tech's OMSCS program.

Lab Notes

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Project Backers

  • 2Backers
  • 2%Funded
  • $104Total Donations
  • $52.00Average Donation
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