About This Project

Three years into the full-scale war, millions of Ukrainians still face poverty, job loss, and displacement. Building on Obrizan (2022), who documented early negative war impacts on women and low-educated groups, this follow-up study uses new data to track how families adapt to prolonged conflict — who recovers, who remains vulnerable, and why. We hypothesize that women without higher education are about 10% more likely to fall into the poorest income category.

Ask the Scientists

What is the context of this research?

Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians continue to face severe economic hardship, job loss, and displacement. The initial study by Obrizan (2022) provided the first systematic evidence of how the war increased poverty and unemployment, especially among women without higher education, in the first months of the invasion. However, that study captured only the immediate shock. Since then, the situation has evolved dramatically: many families have moved multiple times, some regions have partly recovered, and new inequalities have emerged between returnees, internally displaced persons, and those who remained. Despite Ukraine’s heroic resilience, we lack up-to-date data on how people’s livelihoods have adapted—or failed to recover—over time. This project continues that research to understand the long-term social and economic impact of war, using nationally representative data and local conflict mapping.

What is the significance of this project?

Understanding how Ukrainians survive economically during prolonged war is vital for shaping fair and effective recovery policies. Governments and humanitarian organizations need evidence to design programs that truly reach the most vulnerable, rather than relying on assumptions or outdated figures. By building directly on Obrizan (2022), this project offers the first longitudinal perspective on war’s consequences for ordinary households. It focuses on how gender, education, and displacement interact to shape poverty and employment outcomes after three years of conflict. The findings will show which groups have rebuilt their lives and which remain trapped in economic distress. Beyond Ukraine, this research will contribute to global knowledge on how societies endure and adapt under extreme shocks, informing post-conflict recovery strategies in other countries as well. In short, it turns urgent lived experience into actionable data that can guide policy and inspire hope.

What are the goals of the project?

This project aims to measure how households in Ukraine have adjusted to three years of full-scale war, identifying who has recovered economically and who continues to struggle. Specifically, it will: (1) obtain a nationally representative follow-up survey comparable to the KIIS Omnibus waves used in Obrizan (2022); (2) analyze trends in income, employment, and displacement using difference-in-differences and spatial analysis; and (3) publish a policy blog article and an open-access academic paper with key policy recommendations for Ukrainian and international partners. The project will pay special attention to women, low-educated groups, and internally displaced persons to understand long-term inequality. Results will be shared publicly to ensure transparency and encourage evidence-based policymaking. Ultimately, the goal is to help design smarter, more inclusive recovery policies that give every Ukrainian a fair chance to rebuild their life and livelihood.