Can voluntary Point-of-Sale carbon offsets grow exponentially and tip ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts?

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About This Project

To prevent Earth's temperature from passing 2°C of warming and thus passing the threshold of Tipping Points (TP), I'm proposing we institutionalize voluntary Point-of-Sale (POS) carbon offsets globally, so we have a lot of money to pay to capture a lot of CO2 and trigger both ecosystem restoration and conservation towards societal TP. My hypothesis is that 8% of consumers would participate in POS carbon offsets if asked to. I'll gather data from companies that offer POS offsets to test it.

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What is the context of this research?

In the face of climate change, we need to deploy a plethora of solutions to capture carbon and conserve biodiversity. To have self-propelled growth of these solutions, they need to pass a TP. To solve this need I propose POS carbon offsets to deliver this outcome; it is a creative use of the emerging theory of TP. This offset is a payment to compensate the amount of CO2 emitted to produce a product, made at the moment of purchase. The context of this project thus is to test an ambitious framework that has the potential to accelerate the rate of ecosystem restoration (and conservation). What is unique in my proposal is to make the POS carbon offsets work like a global carbon tax. While some people work to implement such a tax and depollute the industry, I think that only large scale carbon capture projects will produce the outcome we need to survive. So I'm checking POS offsets' data to understand its rate of growth and if it can impact the rate of growth of ecosystem restoration.

What is the significance of this project?

Earth’s temperature has already risen to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and is projected to reach 2.7°C by 2100 on our current policies. 2.7° C is disastrous. 25% of ocean biodiversity would be in jeopardy through the loss of 99% of coral reefs at 2°C, and many more ecosystems are in the range to tip after 2°C, like Permafrost and Amazon rainforest. Earth can go into an unmanageable heating trajectory if we reach and pass this threshold. My project will test a creative use of TP theory to verify that POS carbon offsets can lead to the growth of ecosystem conservation and restoration. The two practices compete with renewable energy, for example, in the purchase of offsets. Consumers also have biases towards projects that are either on their nation or in developing nations. But I think they can be moved towards restoration and conservation on an agenda of global carbon capture for survival, if explained to consumers its importance, as today 80% of people globally want more action.

What are the goals of the project?

The main goal of this project is to test if 8% or more of consumers will offset the carbon footprint of their purchases when asked. The more sound number is the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of consumers is between 1-10% of the product's cost, as reviewed per studies, yet there are nuances to it like income, environmental awareness. The ideal place to debate and get feedback on my idea is by attending the Global Tipping Points conference. My abstract has already been approved and this work will lay the foundation for my PhD research. Before embarking on a PhD, during 1 year I’ll gather data from real-world POS carbon offsets made through the service of companies that are already doing it (Klima, Ayden, Shopify) and explore literature on demand for carbon neutrality (already found a sound PhD thesis and a very recent work on the theme) and other related fields. I'm looking at the data of how many consumers offseted of the total number and the WTP of consumers. More about this on lab notes!

Budget

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The budget I present here is basically to fund a 1-year research with a trip to Exeter for the Global Tipping Points conference, where will be debated Earth's condition, Ecosystem's Tipping Points and societal Tipping Points, how to accelerate change that is desired to make Earth's temperature stay at a reasonable threshold and not go out of control. An abstract I sent was approved so I was invited to make a presentation about how to accelerate carbon dioxide removal. If I get the funding to get there I'll be able to debate with experts from all over the world the framework that I'm using. TP theory for social change is a new field so going there may help me surf the wave and set a north for my research. I'd get to network and debate possibilities of partnership for my research. This budget does not cover my day-to-day expenses while I research, but if I reach my goal, I will add a strech goal to cover it, so I can have a sound condition to work.

Endorsed by

I am happy to support Lucas Corazza's project on Point-of-Sale carbon offsets. After reviewing the text, I found it very interesting, especially the potential of institutionalizing these mechanisms globally to promote significant growth in carbon capture. I believe this is a valuable and timely topic, and Lucas is well-positioned to make an important contribution. I am really excited about this project!

Project Timeline

The first part of the research, mapping literature, is under way. By June I'll start preparing slides for the presentation I'm giving at Exeter, England, at the Tipping Points Conference, which will start at the end of June. Slides need to be sent by June 13th. After this I'll rehearse my presentation. In July I'll start gathering data from companies and by August I'll start writing a PhD project. Later in the second semester I'll start applying for PhD programs.

May 01, 2025

Start mapping literature through Litmaps research, Google AI studio and Google Scholar

May 21, 2025

Start the campaign for this project at experiment.com and make sure I reach a lot of people for donations

Jun 04, 2025

Project Launched

Jun 13, 2025

Send slides of the presentation for the conference by email

Jun 14, 2025

Start rehearsing for the presentation

Meet the Team

Lucas Corazza
Lucas Corazza
Master's degree at Unicamp (State University of Campinas)

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Independent
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Lucas Corazza

Hi! I'm an economist and economic historian based in Campinas, Brazil.

I research an interdisciplinary field of economics, Earth System science, ecology and solutions to maintain Earth System's balance. Specifically, I study if voluntary Point-of-Sale carbon offsets (meaning a voluntary offset made in the moment of purchase of a product) can be a major solution for slowing down global warming, if spread globally and working as a voluntary carbon tax.

Other than research I'm passionate about yogis' knowledge, Late Antique, Medieval and Early Modern history, meditation, plant-based food and being in direct contact with nature.


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