Do African buffalo in Kruger National Park share mosquito-borne diseases with cattle on the boundary?

Methods

Summary

Samples are collected already, and plasma has been carefully stored at -80C.  We will use serology to test for antibodies to the arboviruses in the blood of buffalo and cattle.  These antibodies only exist if the animal has been sickened by the virus.  We have a series of samples collected from the same individuals over 2 years every 2-3 months so we will be able to see an animal go from negative to positive, and then know that it was infected in that time period.  This will allow us to understand what proportion of livestock are infected with the arboviruses  compared to the proportion of wild buffalo that are infected with the arboviruses over the same 2 year time period.

Challenges

We do not know how many animals acquired arboviruses over this 2 year time period so it may be that one of the diseases is not present.  However, we are testing for at least 3 diseases, and we know that one is quite common in the study area.  Therefore, we expect this not to be a problem for all 3 diseases, if at all.

Pre Analysis Plan

We will use the antibody data to determine the number of new infections (incidence) that occurred in cattle and buffalo over the 2 year time period.  We will then compare the infection rates to see if cattle have higher incidence of the 3 diseases than buffalo during this time period.