About This Project
Utah's Great Salt Lake is receding alarmingly, threatening ecosystems and local livelihoods. Our project aims to assess future lake water levels using advanced hydroclimate simulations, providing valuable data for effective water management. We'll combine groundwater and hydrological data with innovative water storage modeling, informing water, land, and conservation policy. With a quantitative future projection, our research will help inform decision-makers about the best course of action.
Ask the Scientists
Join The DiscussionWhat is the context of this research?
The iconic Great Salt Lake, North America's largest closed-basin lake, faces severe water decline due to ongoing drought and human consumption. Essentially, the Great Salt Lake functions as a half-submerged evaporation pan in a semi-arid region, sustained by groundwater inflow over time. This groundwater-lake interaction, often overlooked in previous climate assessments, is our focus. We're applying advanced hydroclimate simulations, integrating groundwater data with water storage modeling, to depict the lake's complete response to climate shifts and groundwater depletion. Using the recognized correlation between lake and groundwater levels, we'll simulate future trends, while drawing on past lake models and paleoclimate datasets for a thorough understanding.
What is the significance of this project?
Our hydroclimatic modeling study of the Great Salt Lake's future water level offers vital insights for the region's water, land, and air policy development. It leverages innovative methodologies by combining groundwater data and total water storage modeling to simulate the Great Salt Lake's response to climate scenarios and human consumption. By integrating state-of-the-art climate modeling with traditional data, we enhance upon previous models, enabling a comprehensive assessment of future lake level decline.The quantitative projection will empower stakeholders with actionable data for proactive water resource management, land use, and conservation planning. Furthermore, this study bolsters climate change policies, underpinning the region's long-term sustainability.
What are the goals of the project?
Our objective is to amplify understanding of the Great Salt Lake's water dynamics, with a focus on the understudied groundwater-lake interaction while taking into account recent groundwater depletion. We'll employ hydroclimate simulations, integrating groundwater data and water storage modeling, to depict the lake's response to climate change and groundwater depletion. Groundwater well data and CESM2 simulations will inform our model. Utilizing the correlation between lake and groundwater levels, we'll project lake trends up to 2100 with a probabilistic approach, considering total water storage change that’s validated by groundwater decline. Cross-referencing our findings with past models and paleoclimate datasets, we'll provide actionable insights for regional policy development.
Budget
Data analysis is at the heart of the proposed project. The budget of $5,000 will be primarily allocated towards a graduate student's wages, who will conduct data sorting and analysis for the study duration. Expenses associated with site visits, as well as essentials like computers and software, will be covered by The Wang Lab at Utah State University. This funding is crucial as it can help enlist a competent undergraduate student to pursue graduate education on one of the most significant environmental issues affecting our region.
Endorsed by
Project Timeline
Over the next 12 months, we'll enter Phases 1 and 2 of our project. First, we'll collect and analyze groundwater data, develop our water storage model, and run initial climate simulations. Then, we'll proceed to run more comprehensive climate model simulations and develop water level projections. Following the simulations, our findings will be instrumental in formulating policies addressing climate change and water management, aiming to ensure Utah's sustainable future.
Jul 24, 2023
Project Launched
Feb 14, 2024
Projected the water storage's future in the Great Salt Lake watershed.
May 15, 2024
Analyze the projection and build a probabilistic assessment of the future water levels.
Aug 14, 2024
Provide the quantitative Great Salt Lake water level projection to the general public and water managers.
Meet the Team
Affiliates
Simon Wang
Dr. Simon Wang, a tenured professor at Utah State University of 14 years, brings his expertise and passion to this project on the future of the Great Salt Lake. He earned an MS in Meteorology from Iowa State University and a PhD in 2008. His work delves into drought, floods, storms, and wildfires.
With 170 peer-review publications to date, Dr. Wang is devoted to understanding and addressing climate extremes, frequently contributing to media discussions and public forums. He's actively collaborating with scientists, policymakers, and community leaders to tackle climate impacts. At Utah State University, he teaches courses on climate science, mentors graduate students, and co-founded the USU Climate Science Degrees. This program exposes students to climate change research, fostering their understanding and engagement.
Dr. Wang's academic excellence is widely recognized. He was named the International Professor of the Year, the Graduate Mentor of the Year, and twice the Faculty Researcher of the Year. His academic book won the prestigious PROSE Award. Dr. Wang's robust qualifications and dedication make him integral to the success of this Great Salt Lake project. He is also an advocate for diversity and inclusion in STEM fields, which are critical to preserving the Great Salt Lake.
Additional Information
How should we comprehend water diversion? The consumption argument proposed by Wurtsbaugh et al. indicates that a) diversion data are inhomogeneous and became informative only post-1990, and b) during periods of improved data quality, consumption exhibited cycles of highs and lows inversely correlated with the quasi-decadal drought cycle, as compared to the drought cycle outlined in Wang et al. The key insight is that consumption of the GSL is not solely a human concern but also significantly impacted by nature's drought cycles, such as increased groundwater withdrawal in the time of drought. Thus, water usage must be considered in tandem with aridification, positioning it as a climate issue to be modeled and analyzed in this study.
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