About This Project

Arctic sea ice has retreated even sooner and faster than climate scientists expected. But on any given day, the ice edge is driven more by storms and ocean currents than large scale climate, making the location of the ice edge more variable and less predictable than ever. This highly interdisciplinary project aims to improve summer ice edge predictions to help Arctic communities and companies plan better and operate more safely and efficiently.

Ask the Scientists

What is the context of this research?

The precipitous decline in Arctic sea ice is a serious threat to Arctic ecosystems and peoples. But it has also spurred a "race to the North" as the potential for shipping, minerals, oil and tourism become more obvious. For example, the Northern Sea Route cuts shipping distances by 40% compared to the Suez Canal. At the moment, however, the most significant feature of summer sea ice is how much it varies day to day and month to month, as storms and ocean currents shift the ice around. This high degree of variation leads to poor forecasts of navigability, and so economic benefits have been elusive and safety is an ongoing concern. Operators will face continued hazards from drift ice, icebergs and storminess for some time to come.

What is the significance of this project?

The ice of the North Atlantic is more than a physical entity: it is a regulatory boundary for oil and gas industries. In 2015, the regulatory ice edge was revised some 30 miles north, permitting access to oil leases close to the nature reserve of Bear Island.

The ice also influences the self-determination of the Greenlandic people. Their government sees economic stability as the key to full political independence, but fisheries and tourism may not be enough to sustain them. Oil, gas and other minerals are being explored as an option.

This confluence of change, opportunity and risk at the ice edge raises the question of how science can support effective decisions in the Arctic. The results of this project will also have implications for Alaskan and Canadian operations and planning.

What are the goals of the project?

In this project, we seek to develop an improved capacity for generating knowledge that supports decisions for those who live, operate and have interests in the Arctic. We are using the Norwegian Sea as a test bed for this exploration. But discovery science, even when framed around the concerns of real people, often fails to produce knowledge that can be acted upon because of the assumptions we make about what constitutes usable information.

The goal of this project is to meet with and interview operators to reach a deeper understanding of the information they use and the information they would like to have to help them make better decisions. Our findings will guide the refinement of our models of storms, ice and economics for all of the Arctic, including Alaska and Canada.